2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (2024)

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (1)

Jon Heath

April 19, 2024 9:00 am MT

With the 2024 NFL draft now just six days away, it’s time for our penultimate first-round mock draft.

For this week’s mock, we let Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator do most the work.

Initially, the plan was to only pick for the Broncos at No. 12, letting PFF’s computer make picks Nos. 1-11 before that. However, theCommanders kept taking Drake Maye at No. 2 and the computer then had Jayden Daniels fall all the way to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11, which seemed way too unrealistic, even for a computer mock.

So, we made the Commanders take Daniels, which resulted in the computer sending Drake Maye to the New England Patriots at No. 3. PFF didn’t make any trades and we didn’t force any, so J.J. McCarthy ended up falling to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11.

If McCarthy lasts that long during the actual draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos move up a few spots to get him above Minnesota.

With those notes in mind, here’s a look at the full first-round mock draft.

1

Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (2)

(Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports)

Chicago’s pick seems to be a lock. Williams threw for 8,170 yards and 72 touchdowns in two seasons at USC.

2

Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (3)

(SCOTT CLAUSE / The Daily Advertiser / USA TODAY Network)

The common belief seems to be that Washington prefers Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye, but it remains to be seen if that’s accurate. Daniels totaled 6,725 passing yards and 57 touchdowns at LSU.

3

New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (4)

(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

The Patriots might be tempted to trade down here (perhaps with the Vikings?), but they obviously need a QB. Maye racked up 7,929 passing yards and 62 touchdowns in his final two seasons at UNC.

4

Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (5)

(Brooke LaValley / USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Cardinals will probably get offers for this pick, but it will be hard to pass on Harrison. He totaled 2,474 receiving yards and scored 28 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Ohio State.

5

Los Angeles Chargers: WR Malik Nabers

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (6)

(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

After trading Keenan Allen, the Chargers now land one of the top WRs in the draft. Nabers totaled 1,569 receiving yards and scored 14 touchdowns at LSU last fall.

6

New York Giants: WR Rome Odunze

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (7)

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

If the Giants decide to stick with Daniel Jones for another year, giving him a weapon like Odunze would be helpful. Odunze totaled 1,640 receiving yards and scored 13 touchdowns with the Huskies in 2023.

7

Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (8)

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Alt earned first-team All-American recognition from the Associated Press in 2022 and 2023. After starting 33 games at left tackle for Notre Dame, Alt now shores up Tennessee’s line.

8

Atlanta Falcons: QB Quinyon Mitchell

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (9)

(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

This feels a bit high for Mitchell, but he does have a shot to be the first cornerback drafted. He ran a 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds at the NFL combine after breaking up 46 passes in college.

9

Chicago Bears: TE Brock Bowers

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (10)

(Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK)

A bit of a surprise pick for the Bears, but Bowers will be a great weapon for Caleb Williams. Bowers totaled 2,731 yards from scrimmage and scored 31 touchdowns in three seasons with the Bulldogs.

10

New York Jets: OT Taliese Fuaga

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (11)

(Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports)

Fuaga received first-team All-Pac-12 recognition after starting 12 games at right tackle in 2023. He started 25 games in his final two seasons.

11

Minnesota Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (12)

(Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)

With no trades in this mock, McCarthy falls to the Vikings, who are happy to land him at No. 11. McCarthy threw for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns at Michigan in 2023.

12

Denver Broncos: ED Dallas Turner

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (13)

(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

It’s a pleasant surprise for the Broncos to have Turner available at this spot, a direct result of the Falcons picking Mitchell at No. 8. The best pass rusher in this year’s class, Turner recorded 22.5 sacks in three seasons at Alabama.

13

Las Vegas Raiders: CB Cooper DeJean

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (14)

(Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

DeJean going this high feels like a reach, likely a result of him being the No. 1-graded cornerback in PFF’s database. DeJean was named a first-team All-American in 2023 after breaking up five passes and recording two interceptions.

14

New Orleans Saints: ED Laiatu Latu

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (15)

(Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports)

Latu earned first-team All-American honors in 2023 after recording 13 sacks. He bounced back from a career-threatening neck injury and had two healthy seasons at UCLA before going pro.

15

Indianapolis Colts: CB Terrion Arnold

Arnold falling to this spot is surprising because many draft pundits have him ranked as the No. 1 cornerback in this year’s class. He earned first-team All-American recognition after recording five interceptions in 2023. In the real draft, Arnold might be the first CB to go off the board.

16

Seattle Seahawks: DL Byron Murphy

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (17)

(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

Murphy earned first-team All-Big 12 honors in 2023 after recording 29 tackles (8.5 behind the line) and five sacks. He also rushed for a touchdown and caught a touchdown pass last fall.

17

Jacksonville Jaguars: ED Jared Verse

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (18)

(Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)

Verse had 18 sacks in two seasons at FSU and he’s a good value pick for the Jaguars here. He’s one of three pass rushers who feel like locks to be picked in the first round.

18

Cincinnati Bengals: OT Troy Fautanu

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (19)

(Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)

Fautanu earned first-team All-Pac-12 honors in 2023 after starting 15 games at left tackle. He played both tackle and guard in college.

19

Los Angeles Rams: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (20)

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Fashanu, a first-team All-American last fall, started 20 games in his final two years at PSU. He’s a promising left tackle.

20

Pittsburgh Steelers: OT JC Latham

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (21)

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Latham earned first-team All-SEC recognition last fall after starting 14 games at right tackle. He’ll help keep Russell Wilson upright.

21

Miami Dolphins: DL Jer’Zhan Newton

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (22)

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Newton was named a first-team All-American in 2023 after recording 7.5 sacks and blocking four kicks. He is widely considered the second-best interior defensive lineman in this year’s class behind Murphy.

22

Philadelphia Eagles: WR Brian Thomas

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (23)

(Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports)

Thomas, a second-team All-SEC WR in 2023, hauled in 17 touchdown catches last season, more than any other FBS receiver. Philly is happy to land him here.

23

Minnesota Vikings: OT Amarius Mims

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (24)

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Mims was limited due to injury last fall, starting six games at right tackle. Before that, he started in Georgia’s national championship win in 2022.

24

Dallas Cowboys: OL Graham Barton

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (25)

(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Barton was a first-team All-ACC member in 2023 after starting nine games at left tackle. He also spent some time at center while at Duke.

25

Green Bay Packers: WR Adonai Mitchell

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (26)

(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

Mitchell ran a 40-yard dash in 4.34 seconds at the combine after scoring 11 touchdowns last fall. That speed could help him steak into the first round.

26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Nate Wiggins

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (27)

(Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports)

Wiggins ran a blazing-fast 40-yard dash in 4.28 seconds at the NFL combine. He earned first-team All-ACC honors in 2023 after he broke up nine passes and recorded two interceptions.

27

Arizona Cardinals: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (28)

(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)

McKinstry was named a first-team All-American last fall after breaking up seven passes. He totaled 23 BPUs and two interceptions in three seasons with the Crimson Tide.

28

Buffalo Bills: WR Troy Franklin

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (29)

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

This feels like a big reach as the computer attempts to fill a big need for Buffalo. Franklin totaled 1,383 receiving yards and scored 14 touchdowns last fall, but he should still be available on Day 2.

29

Detroit Lions: ED Chop Robinson

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (30)

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Robinson was named to the first-team All-Big squad in 2023 after recording 7.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage and four sacks in 10 starts.

30

Baltimore Ravens: WR Ladd McConkey

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (31)

(Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

McConkey ran a 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds at the combine, but he also feels more likely to be picked on Day 2. He scored 18 touchdowns in his final three years with the Bulldogs.

31

San Francisco 49ers: OT Tyler Guyton

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (32)

(Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)

Guyton received an All-Big 12 honorable mention in 2023 after starting nine games at right tackle. He played both right tackle and left tackle in college.

32

Kansas City Chiefs: OL Jackson Powers-Johnson

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (33)

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Powers-Johnson was named a first-team All-American in 2023 and won the Rimington Trophy, given to college football’s best center, after he started 13 games.

2024 NFL mock draft: QBs go early, surprise player falls to Broncos (2024)
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