The 2024 NFL draft is just a week away and many mock drafts are starting to look the same. But the draft never goes quite as expected, or really even close to it.
Inevitably, there will be wild trades, unexpected reaches, and puzzling slides that leave the first 32 picks looking nothing like the experts’ relatively hom*ogenous projections. So why not mix things up with a few massive trades.
In this projection, four teams move at least six spots up the draft order (one goes up 19!) and one of the best young wide receivers in the NFL leaves the Bay Area to go to Hollywood.
1
Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USCJerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
This pick is a foregone conclusion at this point. Williams will be the quarterback of the future for the Bears, who already traded away Justin Fields in preparation of their new passer coming to town.
2
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSUScott Clause/USA TODAY Network
It isn’t quite a slam dunk yet, but there’s swelling momentum suggesting that Daniels will be the No. 2 pick.
3
New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, UNCKen Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
Barring a curveball, the Patriots will take either Maye or Daniels. It just depends on which one the Commanders take first. In this case, the former Tar Heels passer lands in New England.
4
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio StateClare Grant/The Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Arizona could probably get a king’s ransom for the No. 4 pick. But with two first-rounders and six top 100 selections already in their arsenal, it’s more important that the Cardinals simply pick good players. Harrison is about as safe as draft picks come (which is still only sort of safe).
5
TRADE: Minnesota Vikings (via LAC): J.J. McCarthy, QB, MichiganStacy Revere/Getty Images
Trade details:
– Vikings receive: No. 5 overall
– Chargers receive: Nos. 11, 23, overall
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. projected Minnesota would trade both of its 2024 first-round picks and a 2025 first-rounder to land the No. 5 pick. That seems a little rich, even in a deal for a quarterback. In this projection, the two 2024 picks do the trick and the Vikings get a new face of the franchise in McCarthy.
6
New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR, WashingtonTroy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
LSU’s Malik Nabers is the more popular No. 2 receiver off the board, but many reports suggest the order of the top three is different from team to team and there’s no consensus. While not quite as twitchy as Nabers, Odunze does everything right and has drawn Davante Adams comparisons. He could be the better fit in Brian Daboll’s offense.
7
Tennesee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre DameKyle Robertson-USA TODAY Sports
The Titans have spent time and resources loading up on skill position talent. Now they need to make sure they have the offensive line talent up front to make the unit work.
8
TRADE: Jacksonville Jaguars (via ATL): Malik Nabers, WR, LSUScott Clause/USA TODAY Network
Trade details:
– Jaguars receive No. 8 overall
– Falcons receive Nos. 17 and 48 overall
With Nabers slipping, the Jaguars make an aggressive move to get the No. 1 receiver they didn’t quite have (and lost anyway) in Calvin Ridley. Jacksonville is making aggressive moves to be a contender and this could push the team a bit closer.
9
Chicago Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE, AlabamaJohn David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Montez Sweat didn’t play his first game in Chicago until November and he still led the Bears in sacks with six. While it’d be nice to supply Williams with a weapon, the Bears can’t pass on the chance to take the first defensive player of the draft class at No. 9.
10
New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, GeorgiaJoshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK
If the Jets hope to maximize the Aaron Rodgers window, adding one of the best tight end prospects in years would help. Bowers is too good to slide much further than No. 10.
11
Los Angeles Chargers (via MIN): Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon StateVasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
New Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh will want to turn the team into a hard-nose, smash-mouth squad. “Imagine Justin Herbert with a great running game,” offensive coordinator Greg Roman said. Adding Fuaga up front would go a long way toward making that vision come to life.
12
TRADE: San Francisco 49ers (via DEN): Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn StateMichael Reaves/Getty Images
Trade details:
– 49ers receive No. 12 overall
– Broncos receive Nos. 31, 63, and 124 overall and 2025 3rd round pick
This is a big swing from the 49ers, but a worthwhile one for a team that’s running out of time to get a Lombardi Trophy out of its stacked roster. San Francisco needs to be better on the offensive line and Trent Williams won’t be around much longer.
13
Las Vegas Raiders: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, ToledoLon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
Jack Jones was a pleasant surprise for the Raiders in 2023, but it’s hard to feel too good about any other corner on the roster other than Nate Hobbs. In Mitchell, Las Vegas would get another piece to fill out a defense that has invested a lot up front.
14
New Orleans Saints: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida StateJim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The never-ending career of Cameron Jordan will continue into the 2024 season, but it’s hard to expect much production from the eight-time Pro Bowler at this point. It’s time to find a player to start opposite Carl Granderson on the New Orleans defensive line.
15
Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB, AlabamaJayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Kenny Moore II is one of the best veteran slot corners in the NFL, but the rest of the Colts cornerback room is filled with young and mostly unproven players. Arnold would give Indianapolis another young player, but one with more pedigree to potentially pair with 2023 second-rounder JuJu Brents.
16
Seattle Seahawks: Byron Murphy II, DT, TexasJohn David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
According to ESPN’s Matt Miller, the Seahawks aren’t going to allow Murphy to fall any further than No. 16. Well here he is.
17
Atlanta Falcons (via JAX): Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLAHarry How/Getty Images
The Falcons, who could make a quick ascension with Kirk Cousins under center, picked up a second-rounder in their deal with the Jaguars and still get a top pass rusher to upgrade their defense.
18
Cincinnati Bengals: Graham Barton, OL, DukeJaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports
Protecting Joe Burrow has to be the top priority for a Bengals team that paid the price in 2023 for not doing more up front. Barton is a versatile and polished lineman who could slot in as a starter right away.
19
Los Angeles Rams: Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, IllinoisRon Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Donald leaves massive shoes to fill and it’s not fair to expect Newton to solve that issue. But the Rams defense has to keep finding young pieces to fill the holes left by a wave of departing stars in recent years.
20
Pittsburgh Steelers: Troy Fautanu, OL, WashingtonSteph Chambers/Getty Images
This is quite a steal for the Steelers at No. 20 overall. Fautanu slips to the bottom half of the first round and Pittsburgh is the beneficiary.
21
TRADE: Detroit Lions (via MIA): Cooper DeJean, CB, IowaLily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK
Trade details:
– Lions receive No. 21 overall
– Dolphins receive Nos. 29 and 73 overall
Like other teams that made big moves in this draft, the Lions have the roster to afford being aggressive. After adding Brian Branch to their secondary last season, Detroit jumps at the chance to get another athletic and versatile defensive back in DeJean, who brings value as a returner to boot.
22
Philadelphia Eagles: JC Latham, OT, AlabamaDale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The hope for the Eagles is that Cam Jurgens can slide over to center and be a reliable replacement for Jason Kelce, while 2023 third-rounder Tyler Steen takes the reins at guard. Latham could push to take that job from Steen in 2024 and eventually take over at right tackle when 34-year-old Lane Johnson hangs up his cleats.
23
TRADE: San Francisco 49ers (via LAC): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSUSean Gardner/Getty Images
Trade details:
– 49ers receive Nos. 23 and 105 overall
– Chargers receive WR Brandon Aiyuk
The 49ers’ standoff with Aiyuk appears to be devolving into an untenable situation. The Chargers can afford to pay Aiyuk a pricy contract and could use a speedy No. 1 to pair with Quentin Johnston in their new-look wide receivers room. San Francisco uses the pick to get another exciting receiver on a rookie contract.
24
Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims, OT, GeorgiaMark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
While he’s severely lacking in experience, Mims is a 6’8 Goliath who could potentially step in at left tackle and keep Tyler Smith at guard.
25
Green Bay Packers: Tyler Guyton, OT, OklahomaDenny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
The Packers reportedly love the idea of moving Zach Tom from right tackle to center. That move would make much more sense if Green Bay picked a 6’8 lineman with right tackle experience to protect Jordan Love.
26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn StateDan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Buccaneers found an exciting young pass rusher in Yaya Diaby, but they haven’t got enough out of former first-rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Robinson could give them a trio of young rushers to work with in 2024, and potentially a starting duo if JTS is headed out of town in the 2025 offseason.
27
Arizona Cardinals: Darius Robinson, EDGE, MissouriKevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
After adding a star receiver early in the draft, the Cardinals can look to add talent to a defensive line that allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL and only tallied 33 sacks last season.
28
Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR, TexasJohn David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
While the Jaguars and Chargers took huge swings to upgrade their receiver corps, the Bills don’t really have the resources to do the same. Instead, the sit back at No. 28 and get an exciting pass catcher anyway by landing Mitchell.
29
Miami Dolphins (via DET): Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, OregonCraig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports
Anywhere in the first round might be a little early for Powers-Johnson, but taking the center at No. 29 is much more palatable than taking him at No. 21. The Dolphins are reportedly “very much intrigued” with the idea of taking Powers-Johnson, who could be an immediate starter on an offensive line that needs help on the interior.
While Miami signed former Titans center Aaron Brewer in free agency, he also has experience at guard. The Rimington Trophy winner could start at center instead and Brewer could fill the void at right guard left by Robert Hunt’s departure.
30
Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Morgan, OT, ArizonaMark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Ravens offensive line will look much different after guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson both left in free agency, and Morgan Moses was traded to the Jets. Morgan could be the start of a rebuild up front.
31
Denver Broncos (via SF): Bo Nix, QB, OregonBen Lonergan / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Broncos are the betting favorite to draft Nix, but would they really take him at No. 12 overall? Sliding down to the tail-end of the first round and scooping up a lot of extra value on the way would make this selection much more palatable for the rebuilding Broncos.
32
Kansas City Chiefs: Nate Wiggins, CB, ClemsonIsaiah Vazquez/Getty Images
After trading away L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs are fortunate to have a cornerback as talented and athletic as Wiggins slide to the last pick in the first round.