It’s that time of the year when oddsmakers release their win total projections for each team. The win totals mainly represent two things: how the oddsmakers expect a team to do that season and how they compare to the other teams across the conference and country.
For the most part, the win total projections are fairly accurate. It’s rare that oddsmakers are way off with their numbers. So with that in mind, Penn State sits at 9.5 projected wins coming off their 11-2 and Rose Bowl championship season.
Considering where the program is right now, how much talent is inside the building and the momentum of a successful last season, it would be extremely disappointing to not finish with double-digit wins and go over this number.
Last year oddsmakers set the number at 8.5 wins. Penn State smashed that number and went way over. In 2021, the number was 7.5 and the Nittany Lions finished with seven wins. The 2020 year is ignored due to COVID, but they also went over the number in 2019, winning 11 games when the preseason number was 7.5.
To go over the number in back to back years, let’s take a look at the schedule and see how Penn State can get into double digit wins.
Group A - The Big Games
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While every single game is big for Penn State football, there are three games on the schedule that stand out more than others. This season, the Nittany Lions travel to Ohio State and Michigan State, while they host Michigan.
Facing Ohio State on the road is always tough for Penn State. They have six wins in the history of the series in Columbus. The last time winning on the road against the Buckeyes was in 2011. Penn State is 0-5 in Columbus since then.
Michigan has beaten Penn State the last two matchups. Historically, Beaver Stadium yields better results for the Nittany Lions with six wins at home compared to four on the road. This is a major game for Penn State, who has been dominated by Michigan recently.
While Michigan State doesn’t have the cache of the prior two games, it’s still a rivalry with the Land Grant Trophy being handed out to the winner of the game. Road games in East Lansing have proven to be much tougher as well, with a 6-12 record on the road. The last road win was in 2019.
The goal for Penn State in these big games is to go 2-1. A sweep would be incredible but not feasible. In order to get to their 10 win number, they’ll have to perform much better than they did against their rivals last year. Can they do it?
Group B - Tough Victories
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This is the group of teams that Penn State should beat based on their superior talent profile and location of the game. It’s no secret that the Nittany Lions play much better in Beaver Stadium and the opponents play worse.
West Virginia, Illinois, Iowa and Maryland are the teams who fall into this category. The West Virginia game is the renewal of an old regional rivalry that was last played in 1992. Penn State has dominated this series with a 44-9-2 record. But West Virginia has Power 5 conference talent now in the Big 12, so this will be an important game to win as the opener of the season.
Illinois lost a lot of talent from last year’s team, so Penn State should be able to take care of business. However, the game is on the road and coach Bret Bielema’s style of football can always make a game interesting. Iowa has a winning record on the road against Penn State, but is 1-2 in Beaver Stadium since [autotag]James Franklin[/autotag] has arrived. The Nittany Lions have dominated the Maryland series with 38 wins and three losses. But Maryland does have the returning Big Ten leader in passing yards so they have experience at the most important position.
Group C - The Must Wins
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There are absolutely no excuses if Penn State does not win their games against this group of opponents. Their talent as a program is far superior and it would be unacceptable to drop one of these games. Delaware, Northwestern, UMass, Indiana and Rutgers are the must win games.
Delaware is an FCS level football program and UMass has two wins in three years. These games will mainly be used as tune up games for Penn State and getting some of the younger guys playing time in live action.
Northwestern has been awful the past two seasons, going 4-20 and 2-16 in Big Ten play. Indiana is in the same situation with a 6-18 overall record and 2-16 record in conference during the last two years. Rutgers has become much more competitive under Greg Schiano, but is still 6-21 in the Big Ten under Schiano.
