Last year, in the days leading up to the draft, an AFC general manager told me that the 2024 NFL draft had maybe six or seven prospects that, had they been eligible, would’ve been the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. Then, he rattled off the names: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr., Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers and Dallas Turner.
All, he said, were better than anyone in last year’s class at their position.
Since then, others have entered the fray such as Jayden Daniels, Joe Alt and Malik Nabers. Some in the group have leveled off, and teams have had time to dig in. And with that reset complete just a few days away from Thursday’s first round, the conclusion I’ve gotten from teams is that while this year’s group is really good at the top, it may not be quite as complete as a lot of personnel people were hoping it would be last May.
“I’d say it’s probably not as strong as the perception of it is out there,” says one NFC GM. “It took some body blows with the number of guys who went back to school. I think it’s kind of like any other draft now. But, yeah, there’s a misconception out there that it’s this out-of-this-world draft year. There’s a point where it’s really going to fall off.”
And when we get to that point next weekend, you’ll probably have stopped watching anyway.
So with that said, welcome to our annual draft needs column. Every year, in this space, we work with a few pro scouting departments to best ascertain how teams see their rivals’ needs. As such, some needs listed here are obvious, while others are a year or two ahead of losing a free agent, or a veteran aging out.
In other words, the needs here are based on how teams see their opponents’ draft, which I hope gives all of you the clearest view on how each will approach the weekend.
And that’s where the above NFC GM’s evaluation comes into play. He did agree that the top of the draft is strong. Some premium positions such as receiver and corner should bring great depth in the top 100 picks or so. And we already know the talent at the quarterback position.
But early on Day 3, the quality of players available falls off, and there will be guys selected that teams see on the same level as undrafted free agents. It’s going to impact the value of late-round picks, and could also weigh down trades earlier in the draft as a result.
We’ll have more on this in the takeaways, but it’s mostly, as the GM said, because of the lower number of underclassmen in the draft. Only 58 declared this year, down from a record 130 three years ago. That’s largely due to NIL and the transfer portal making it easier (and more attractive) for guys to stay in school.
So if you’re looking for your favorite team to come away with a half-dozen contributors, this might not be the year. But that shouldn’t make Thursday’s opening round any less fun.
I love draft week, and hope you’re all as excited as I am. Here’s what’s over in the takeaways …
• A last look at Harrison’s process, and how it might impact things in the future.
• More on the impact of NIL and the portal on the draft.
• A little more on the Commanders’ trip to Topgolf.
But we’re starting with a big-picture view of the big week ahead.
So over the past couple of weeks, I spent time talking with coaches, GMs and scouts trying to learn as much as I can about the 2024 draft class, and how things might fall Thursday and into Friday and Saturday. In the process, I compiled needs, and here’s what I know as of now.
Chicago Bears
- First round: Nos. 1 and 9
- Total picks: Four
- Needs: QB, Edge, WR, DT, OL
What you need to know: The Bears traded Justin Fields before St. Patrick’s Day, and they invited only one quarterback to Lake Forest for a top-30 visit (in-house visits with prospects before the draft). During that visit, Caleb Williams dined with vets at a separate restaurant from the other five prospects in town. They sent the calvary to USC for its pro day. Williams is, for all intents and purposes, a Bear already. Which takes you, then, to the second of their first-round picks. Other teams have gotten the sense that Chicago will try to move down given their dearth of picks on Day 2 (1) and Day 3 (2). If the Bears stick, a couple of friends of GM Ryan Poles said they think he’ll be looking to add talent around Williams. So if one of the top three receivers slide to Chicago, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen could get a running mate. If not? Maybe an offensive lineman or Texas 3-technique Byron Murphy II.
Washington Commanders
- First round: No. 2
- Total picks: Nine
- Needs: QB, OT, Edge TE
What you need to know: GM Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn have done a good job covering their intentions at two—though it’s fair to say it’ll be a quarterback. The team had the much-ballyhooed group 30 visit with Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. in town, and part of the Topgolf crew. Two things I can dispel here. One, the coaches got plenty of one-on-one time with the quarterbacks, both through the process, and on the 30 visit, so there wasn’t a lot lost in how they arranged the whole thing (a practice Peters took from how the San Francisco 49ers did it). Two, Daniels’s agent was not offended by how the whole thing went down. So, again, while Peters and Quinn have kept their cards close to the vest, I wouldn’t be totally stunned if their pick was Maye or McCarthy. But most NFL folks are banking on Daniels being the selection.
New England Patriots
- First round: No. 3
- Total picks: Eight
- Needs: QB, WR, OT, CB
What you need to know: A lot of people have been involved in the process. Eliot Wolf, Jerod Mayo, Alex Van Pelt, Ben McAdoo, T.C. McCartney, Alonzo Highsmith, Pat Stewart, Matt Groh and Cam Williams were part of the team’s traveling crew to quarterback pro days, with a few others sprinkled in. And they’ve all had a voice as Wolf tries to pull together all of the information the team has compiled on Daniels, Maye, McCarthy and Penix. It’s worth noting that Penix was a late addition to the team’s slate of 30 visits—I’ve heard on good authority that was in case the team decides to trade down. If Daniels is there, I’d bet they take him. Both Maye and McCarthy have their fans in the Patriots’ building. And if it’s down to those two, my guess at this point is the team sticks at three and takes Maye. In any case, my money is that Maye goes third (with the Giants and Vikings possible trade partners for New England if the Patriots decide to move).
Arizona Cardinals
- First round: Nos. 4 and 27
- Total picks: 11
- Needs: WR, Edge, DT, CB, RB
What you need to know: It won’t be easy to get GM Monti Ossenfort to move off four—but he’s going to listen to offers. The Cardinals have already talked to three teams in earnest on moving the pick, and a fourth was expected to call. Those teams have been told that Arizona won’t move the pick until it’s on the clock, with the hope parameters for potential deals are in place before then (as was the case with Houston last year). And with the uncertainty of which quarterbacks will be available at that point, teams interested in trading for the pick probably would benefit from waiting anyway. If Arizona stays at four, a lot of folks expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the pick. His combination of clean character and freakish traits make him a wheelhouse type of prospect for Ossenfort. And from there, Arizona will have a chance to really build the roster, with the fourth pick being just one of their three in the top 35 and six in the top 90.
Los Angeles Chargers
- First round: No. 5
- Total picks: Nine
- Needs: WR, OT, CB DL, OG
What you need to know: Harrison would make a lot of sense if Arizona trades out and quarterbacks go 1-2-3-4. Jim Harbaugh played with Marvin Harrison in Indianapolis, was in the Big Ten with his son, and the Chargers just offloaded Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But pretty consistently I’ve been told to keep an eye on an offensive lineman in this spot. The chalk pick would be Notre Dame LT Joe Alt, who’s continually improved and has off-the-charts potential (one exec said his pro day was the best he’s ever seen from an offensive lineman). But I’ve heard a little buzz, and maybe this would be in a trade-down scenario, that Alabama’s JC Latham could be a Chargers’ consideration as well, as a road-grading right tackle to bookend with incumbent left tackle Rashawn Slater (though the way he finished the Rose Bowl against Harbaugh’s Michigan team might be a strike against him). And, yes, the Chargers are open to moving down. Chances of that, as I see them, would increase if Arizona sticks at four.
New York Giants
- First round: No. 6
- Total picks: Six
- Needs: WR, QB, OT, CB, DT
What you need to know: They’ve done all the work on the quarterbacks. They traveled to Chapel Hill to work out Maye, went to Ann Arbor to work out McCarthy and traveled to Seattle to work out Penix. They also had groups at the pro days, and did 30 visits with each. The quarterback I’ve heard them connected to most (by far) is Maye. If they can’t get in position to get Maye, I could see the Giants standing pat and taking a receiver. I’d say this spot is the floor for Harrison. If he’s not there, would the Giants take Washington’s Rome Odunze over LSU’s Malik Nabers? Given that Nabers has a bit of a reputation for being difficult to deal with/coach, and the Giants’ own experience with another LSU receiver that had been like that, I could see it, with Odunze being about as clean character-wise as any prospect in the draft.
Tennessee Titans
- First round: No. 7
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: OT, DT, Edge, WR, LB
What you need to know: Just about everyone expects the Titans to go offensive line in Brian Callahan’s first draft working with GM Ran Carthon and president of football operations Chad Brinker. Even after taking Peter Skoronski in the first round last year and signing Lloyd Cushenberry in free agency, Tennessee has plenty of work to do in that area. Alt would make sense in a lot of different ways—the mere idea of putting him with Bill Callahan is tantalizing—so I think this would be the floor for the offensive tackle. This is also another team I’ve heard connected to Latham, perhaps if the Titans wind up in a trade-down scenario. Those two and Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga made it to Nashville for 30 visits. If there’s a curveball here? It could be Nabers, with the younger Callahan having been there when the Bengals took Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell three years ago.
Atlanta Falcons
- First round: No. 8
- Total picks: Eight
- Needs: Edge, CB, DT, OT
What you need to know: One of the easiest connections to make in this year’s draft has been Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner to the Falcons. Raheem Morris arrives with the team carrying a huge need for a top edge player, and Turner, who just turned 21, is bursting with athletic potential. Murphy is another that’s been mentioned to me here, as a potential Grady Jarrett successor. But a few teams have their radar up for the team to pivot if Nabers happens to fall to them—which would mean Atlanta taking an offensive skill player in the top 10 four years in a row. Then, there’s a wild-card possibility that the Falcons take a quarterback. I don’t expect it. But the team did send a big contingent, with Morris and GM Terry Fontenot in the group, to work out Penix in Seattle, and had one scheduled (it was canceled) with McCarthy as well.
New York Jets
- First round: No. 10
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: OT, WR, TE, S, RB
What you need to know: I’m aware that a lot of people have Bowers penciled in here, and I’d agree he’s a consideration. But those who know Jets GM Joe Douglas insist that it’d be foolish to rule out New York taking a tackle. The team’s new bookends at the position, Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, are both 33 years old. Smith’s had trouble staying on the field, and it’s pretty easy to argue that Aaron Rodgers needs better protection in 2024 than he does targets in the passing game. Which tackle is another question. Alt and Penn State’s Olu Fashanu are the most natural left tackles, but Latham and Fuaga have flexibility to kick inside to guard (which could create temporary homes for those guys as Jets).
Minnesota Vikings
- First round: Nos. 11 and 23
- Total picks: Nineeven
- Needs: QB, DT, OG, CB
What you need to know: My sense is the Vikings, with the infrastructure they have on offense (Kevin O’Connell as head coach; Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson as pass catchers; Christian Darrisaw anchoring the line) are comfortable with a larger swath of the quarterbacks than other teams. So, sure, they could trade up for Maye. They could also move up for McCarthy. Or they could, theoretically, wait on the position, either until 11 or 23 (and take someone such as Texas DT Byron Murphy II at 11). My guess if I had to mock it right now? A trade to move up for the Michigan quarterback.
Denver Broncos
- First round: No. 12
- Total picks: Eight
- Needs: QB, CB, TE, WR, C, OT, DT
What you need to know: The Broncos have quietly done their homework on the quarterbacks. They traveled to Michigan (with Sean Payton in tow) to work out McCarthy, and had Penix to Denver for a 30 visit. Denver could be a sneaky trade-up possibility for McCarthy, or at least that’s how some rival teams see it. There’s also a wide-spread assumption among NFL folks that if Bo Nix is going in the first round, it’d be to Denver, just because of his stylistic fit with Payton—and the fact that the Broncos don’t have a second-round pick, something that makes a trade down possible (and they’ve called around on trading down), and could complicate a trade up for a quarterback. If it’s not a quarterback? Offensive line is always a possibility for Payton, and one thing that was raised to me was how the Broncos coach has often had matchup guys, such as Bowers, at tight end.
Las Vegas Raiders
- First round: No. 13
- Total picks: Eight
- Needs: QB, OT, CB, IOL, WR
What you need to know: The Raiders have sniffed around on a trade up, and a lot of NFL people have assumed, as we’ve written in this space, such a move would be to get Daniels given the three years he spent with Antonio Pierce at Arizona State. If Vegas sticks at 13, which would be the likelihood, they’ve been marked by a few other teams as one to watch on Penix, with a coaching staff loaded with guys who have a quarterbacking background. And if it’s not a quarterback, this one could legitimately go in just about any best-player-available direction, with the team carrying needs just about everywhere except on the defensive line and at safety.
New Orleans Saints
- First round: No. 14
- Total picks: Nine
- Needs: OT, WR, Edge, OL, CB
What you need to know: A team that’s been pegged by many as one to watch at offensive tackle, and one name that’s come up a few times is Fuaga, whose tape is as good as any lineman in the draft, but gets dinged by some who think he’s strictly a right tackle. With Ryan Ramczyk entrenched in that spot, taking Fuaga here would be a sign that the Saints think he can flip, similar to how the Browns projected Jedrick Wills Jr. to the left side after drafting the Alabama right tackle back in 2020.
Indianapolis Colts
- First round: No. 15
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: CB, WR, Edge, DB, OT
What you need to know: The Colts are widely seen as a team that could go up for an offensive-skill player—maybe if one of the top three receivers slides a bit, or maybe for Bowers—to try and put another piece in place for Anthony Richardson. Bowers is interesting in particular because he’s been compared by NFL folks to Colts legend Dallas Clark, and also because Shane Steichen was very creative in his use of tight ends with the Philadelphia Eagles. Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell could be fits, too, after Indy explored a trade for L’Jarius Sneed earlier in the offseason.
Seattle Seahawks
- First round: No. 16
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: DL, OG, LB, TE
What you need to know: Seattle has connections to two of the draft’s top quarterbacks—coach Mike Macdonald was with McCarthy at Michigan in 2021, and OC Ryan Grubb coached Penix the past two years at Washington. Out of range to get McCarthy, there’s some belief in league circles that this is another potential Penix landing spot. If Seattle doesn’t go with a quarterback, there are two stylistic fits for the Macdonald defense. One is Florida State’s Jared Verse, a physical, tough, Ravens-style edge in the mold of Terrell Suggs. Another would could be Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, the sort of movable piece for a secondary that’s been vital in the types of defenses Wink Martindale and Macdonald ran in Baltimore the past five years.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- First round: No. 17
- Total picks: Eight
- Needs: WR, CB, DT, OL
What you need to know: The Jaguars have explored moving up—and they’ve done a lot of work on the top receivers in the draft. Losing Calvin Ridley, even with Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis paid, makes that spot a priority. Failing that, corner, if either Arnold or Mitchell are available here, shapes up as a possibility, too. Another would be a disruptive defensive tackle for new DC Ryan Nielsen’s scheme—maybe Murphy, if he slides a bit, or Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton (who’s coming off a foot fracture).
Cincinnati Bengals
- First round: No. 18
- Total picks: 10
- Needs: OT, WR, DT, CB, RB
What you need to know: Cincinnati’s gone into the past few drafts with an offensive line need and this year’s no different, with the departure of Jonah Williams opening a spot opposite Orlando Brown Jr. at tackle. In a class where seven or eight might go in the first round, it’s hard to get a handle on which ones will be there at 18, but this might be Tyler Guyton or Amarius Mims territory. I also wouldn’t rule out Bowers, if he somehow slips (I can’t imagine he’ll be there at 18) or a receiver (such as LSU’s Brian Thomas) to get ahead of the potential departure (sooner or later) of Tee Higgins.
Los Angeles Rams
- First round: No. 19
- Total picks: 11
- Needs: DT, Edge, OT, DB, TE, RB
What you need to know: Sean McVay’s going into his eighth season in Los Angeles and this is the first time he’s had a first-round pick. That alone would put receiver in play, even with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Tutu Atwell on the roster. That said, it’s also fair to say the Rams could add to either line of scrimmage. On offense, tackle would make sense. On defense, a disruptive interior force, such as Newton, would be logical, too, given the void left by Aaron Donald, and even with the team having hit on Kobie Turner last year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- First round: No. 20
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: WR, OT, CB, C, DT
What you need to know: The Steelers have poured into their offensive line, adding vets such as James Daniels and Issac Seumalo the past couple of offseasons and drafting Broderick Jones in the first round. It’d be no surprise to see another tackle thrown into that mix here. Another thing worth mentioning: the Steelers got a great return taking a center in a spot such as this 14 years ago in Maurkice Pouncey, so Duke’s Graham Barton could be a nice fit, too. And, yes, I know a lot of folks have the team taking a receiver. I just know the Steelers have always found receivers later in the draft (their last first-round receiver was Santonio Holmes in 2006), and this draft class is deep with Day 2 and even Day 3 prospects at the position.
Miami Dolphins
- First round: No. 21
- Total picks: Six
- Needs: OG, DT, Edge, WR, CB
What you need to know: Miami has more holes than most folks realize. The off-loading of Jerome Baker and Xavien Howard—combined with the departures of Christian Wilkins and Andrew Van Ginkel—have left the Dolphins with a lot of work to do under new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver. And while they’ve made it work on the offensive line, left tackle Terron Armstead is aging and has been hurt, and they could use help elsewhere up front, too. So with all of that established, one name I’ve heard circled for Miami from other teams is Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who would add even more speed to the offense, and perhaps give the team an off-ramp with Tyreek Hill over the next year or two.
Philadelphia Eagles
- First round: No. 22
- Total picks: Eight
- Needs: CB, OG, S, RB, LB, OT
What you need to know: The position I’ve heard most consistently assigned to the Eagles is offensive tackle. It might seem a little strange, given the team’s needs on defense (and in the secondary in particular), but GM Howie Roseman’s always prioritized the lines and worked to get ahead of potential holes, so finding the eventual replacement for Lane Johnson—who’s entering his 12th year—is in play. With the group of tackles in this year’s class so highly regarded, though, it’s unclear whether the right one for Philly makes it to 22.
Dallas Cowboys
- First round: No. 24
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: OT, C, RB, CB, DL
What you need to know: Another team that’s expected to be on the lookout for offensive line help. The flexibility that Tyler Smith brings to the table allows Dallas to keep its options open at these positions. And the versatile Barton is one player I’ve heard connected to the team, which makes sense given Dallas’s track record of success (Zack Martin, Travis Frederick) taking interior linemen high. I think they’ll go running back early—maybe Texas’s Jonathan Brooks on Day 2—but there isn’t one worth taking in the first round.
Green Bay Packers
- First round: No. 25
- Total picks: 11
- Needs: OT, LB, CB, S, OG
What you need to know: Another team looking for offensive line help. Long-time left tackle David Bakhtiari is gone, and for right now Green Bay’s bookends at the position are Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom. Whether a long-term answer is found here at that spot will likely be dictated by which tackles are there in this range. Corner is another possibility, with Clemson’s Nate Wiggins and Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry possibilities near the end of the round.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- First round: No. 26
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: OG, LB, CB, DT, Edge, RB
What you need to know: The Buccaneers don’t have a ton of huge needs. Perhaps the biggest one is for an off-ball linebacker and, as is the case at running back, there really isn’t a guy at that position expected to go in the first round. So it stands to reason Tampa gets a corner to replace Carlton Davis, or perhaps a pressure player for their defensive front such as Penn State’s Chop Robinson.
Buffalo Bills
- First round: No. 28
- Total picks: 10
- Needs: WR, CB, S, Edge, C, RB
What you need to know: There’s the idea that the Bills could go up for a receiver, but with the roster turnover this offseason that broke up much of the core that got Buffalo back to prominence, a massive, Julio Jones-type of swing might not be as logical as people are making it out to be. That said, guys such as Texas’s A.D. Mitchell and Georgia’s Ladd McConkey (who has some medical questions after injuries in college) would be reasonable options, as would a corner (Wiggins, McKinstry) or even a center such as West Virginia’s Zach Frazier.
Detroit Lions
- First round: No. 29
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: S, WR, OG, Edge, OT
What you need to know: There aren’t many holes left on the roster, as the team tries to take the next step after making the NFC title game last year. They could, like everyone else, use some offensive line depth, or an edge rusher to throw in the group with Aidan Hutchinson (Missouri’s Darius Robinson would be a nice fit).
Baltimore Ravens
- First round: No. 30
- Total picks: Nine
- Needs: OT, LB, WR, Edge, DB
What you need to know: Another team with an offensive line need, the Ravens said goodbye to John Simpson, Kevin Zeitler and Morgan Moses this offseason, which leaves Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh with the option to take a tackle or an interior lineman here. This is where someone such as Arizona’s Jordan Morgan or, if you project him to guard, Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson could come into play.
San Francisco 49ers
- First round: No. 31
- Total picks: 10.
- Needs: CB, OT, DL, LB, WR, TE
What you need to know: The 49ers could use—yup—another offensive tackle. This is another one that’ll be dictated by who happens to fall in the round. If the tackle supply has dried up (a distinct possibility), then one of the second-tier corners, or a receiver to have in place to eventually take Brandon Aiyuk’s spot would make sense.
Kansas City Chiefs
- First round: No. 32
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: OT, Edge, WR, CB
What you need to know: Yes, another team that could use another tackle, with Donovan Smith still unsigned and Jawaan Taylor the only one on the roster with starting experience. But Kansas City is bracing for Rashee Rice to, eventually, incur sanctions from the league for his recent hit-and-run, and so receiver is higher on the list than it might’ve been a couple of months ago. I have heard Worthy’s name connected to Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers
- First pick: No. 33
- Total picks: Seven
- Needs: WR, Edge, CB, LB, DT
What you need to know: Supporting Bryce Young will certainly be a priority, and given the strength of the receiver class, it’s not out of line to think that new GM Dan Morgan will tap into wideouts at Nos. 33, 39 or 65. That said, having the first pick in the second round can put a team in a position of power on the Friday of draft weekend, so it’d hardly be shocking to see Morgan hold an auction for the pick after the first round to grow the team’s draft warchest.
Houston Texans
- First pick: No. 42
- Total picks: Nine
- Needs: DT, CB, OT
What you need to know: Nick Caserio essentially moved the Texans’ first pick down 19 slots in the trade with Minnesota, and Houston still has its slotted second- and third-rounders at Nos. 59 and 86 (they have the Vikings’ second-rounder next year in the wash), setting the team up as a Day 2 powerbroker. As for what the Texans will be looking for, DeMeco Ryans’s history in San Francisco would indicate they’ll keep stocking the defensive line, and Florida State’s Braden Fiske and Ohio State’s Michael Hall could be fits as disruptors on the interior.
Cleveland Browns
- First pick: No. 54
- Total picks: Six
- Needs:DT, IOL, WR, RB
What you need to know: The Browns are another team in the enviable position of being able to plan a year or two out, with a pretty complete roster devoid of major holes. They’d like to add a defensive tackle or two, putting guys such as Hall and Michigan’s Kris Jenkins on the Day 2 radar, and landing a running back in the middle rounds, with Nick Chubb coming back from injury.
So as you can tell, we’re ready for a big week ahead at Sports Illustrated. This column is just the start—we’ll have my usual Tuesday notes, plus notes columns on Wednesday and Thursday, my one and only mock draft somewhere in there, and the podcast, too.
Happy draft week!
