2024 NFL Draft fantasy football analysis for every 1st-round pick (2024)

This is BetFTW’s 2024 NFL Draft fantasy football tracker, a running list of each pick with potential fantasy impact and analysis for what managers can expect. This will be updated throughout the first round.

From C.J. Stroud to De’Von Achane to Puka Nacua, NFL rookies showed out in 2023, proving just how immediately valuable they can be for fantasy football managers. And the best part is many of them are available late in fantasy drafts.

Stroud was drafted as the consensus QB21 last year, according to FantasyPros. Achane was the RB34, Nacua was WR51. Each finished the season top 10 at their positions in fantasy PPG.

With that said, fantasy mangers will be paying close attention to the real NFL draft Thursday with an eye out for those type of gems, and BetFTW is here to help. Below is a running list of each first-rounder who can potentially impact fantasy football leagues right away.

Caleb Williams (No. 1 to Chicago Bears)

I could have written this the moment Chicago traded Justin Fields, but it’s official now. Williams is the new Bears QB and he’ll have a ton of weapons to work with from day one, with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and fellow rookie Rome Odunze at receiver, and D’Andre Swift in the backfield. It’s unfair to expect any rookie to do what CJ Stroud just did, because literally no other rookie in NFL history has. But Williams is absolutely worth drafting as a backup if not a starter in the QB10 range.

Jayden Daniels (No. 2 to Washington Commanders)

Daniels should be able to beat out Marcus Mariota for Washington’s starting job. But if it’s unfair to expect Caleb Williams to put up elite fantasy production in year one, it’s definitely not something we should be looking for from Daniels. That said, Daniels’ running ability gives him tremendous upside, so he should still be drafted as a backup with the potential to take over as starter, especially playing in a Kliff Kingsbury offense.

Drake Maye (No. 3 to New England Patriots)

Maye’s slide from the potential No. 1 overall pick to third doesn’t necessarily make me doubt his ability to have an impact from day one, but the landing spot does. The Patriots just don’t have a great supporting cast for Maye on offense, so I wouldn’t be in a rush to draft him, even as a backup.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (No. 4 to Arizona Cardinals)

Harrison may very well have the most upside of any rookie in this draft class, as a polished receiver going to a team with a quarterback who will give him an opportunity to make plays. He’s not a first-round fantasy pick, but he’s not far from it. Harrison should be considered a potential WR1 for your fantasy team, and no worse than a WR2.

Malik Nabers (No. 6 to New York Giants)

The Giants were in desperate need of a playmaker and they got one in Nabers. The only question now is if they have the type of offense and quarterback to maximize his abilities. Those questions limit his upside, so he shouldn’t be drafted as a lead receiver for your fantasy team, but he’ll be a WR2 with great upside.

Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 to Atlanta Falcons)

Penix won’t hold any fantasy value as a rookie considering the Falcons just signed Kirk Cousins this offseason. Cousins will begin the season as the starter, and even in the event he’s re-injured in his first season back from an Achilles injury, Penix won’t be a starting-caliber fantasy player in what should be a run-first offense.

Rome Odunze (No. 9 to Bears)

Odunze won’t have as much fantasy upside as his rookie quarterback simply due to the competition he’ll have for targets in this offense. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore are top-tier receivers, and the three combined will eat into each other’s production. I don’t consider Odunze anything more than a high-upside flex player, though Allen’s injury history gives him a chance to do more.

J.J. McCarthy (No. 10 to Minnesota Vikings)

McCarthy won’t be worth a draft pick in year one. Though he may ultimately see the field as a rookie, he may not beat out Sam Darnold as the starter right away. He’s still raw after not having to do as much at Michigan as some of the other quarterbacks in this class.

Bo Nix (No. 12 to Denver Broncos)

Russell Wilson finished as the QB14 in this offense last season, and there’s no reason to expect Nix to do much better in his first year. And that’s assuming he even wins the starting job out of camp, which isn’t a guarantee. Nix probably isn’t worth drafting for anything more than a backup role.

Brock Bowers (No. 13 to Las Vegas Raiders)

My concern with Bowers is obviously the quarterback situation in Vegas. Whether it’s Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell under center, neither utilized the tight end much last season (neither is all that good either). Bowers will also have to split reps and targets with 2023 second-rounder Michael Mayer. That makes him no more than a backup fantasy TE option.

Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 23 to Jacksonville Jaguars)

Thomas is in a great spot to develop into a special talent in the NFL, with Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball. But a receiving corp that includes Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, the newly-acquired Gabe Davis and tight end Evan Engram gives him some stiff competition for targets. His upside makes him worth a flier as a flex option, but he shouldn’t be considered for anything more just yet.

Xavier Worthy (No. 28 to Kansas City Chiefs)

Next to Marvin Harrison Jr., I really think Worthy can have the biggest impact among this impressive rookie wide receiver class. It’s just the perfect combination of skill and ability. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs love speed and nobody has more than Worthy. Not to mention, KC’s receiving corp needed an infusion of talent, so he’ll have an opportunity to contribute right away. Worthy should be considered a second WR option for fantasy teams.

Ricky Pearsall (No. 31 to San Francisco 49ers)

Pearsall may have a chance to make an immediate impact for the 49ers depending on what happens with Brandon Aiyuk, who’s seeking a new contract. So that situation is worth monitoring. If they hold on to Aiyuk, that should obviously temper expectations for how much Pearsall can contribute. But if they make a move, Pearsall immediately becomes a high-upside flex option.

Xavier Legette (No. 32 to Carolina Panthers)

Legette is a big and fast receiver who should give Bryce Young an extra weapon in the passing game. Of course, that passing game isn’t much to speak of from what we last saw, so that limits how much we should expect from Legette in year one. Especially considering Carolina also traded for Diontae Johnson this offseason, this isn’t a player I’d consider drafting.